Britain's help to Ukraine to fight Russian aggression

Britain, like other Western countries, comes to the aid of Ukraine.

It threatens Russia with economic sanctions in case of invasion and provides Ukraine with anti-tank weapons and armored vehicles.

If Russian troops cross the borders of Ukraine, Britain promises to deploy its forces in Eastern European member states of the NATO military alliance.

But why is Britain getting involved in this potential conflict?

Former prime minister Neville Chamberlain was much criticised for describing Germany's attempted annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 as "a quarrel in a faraway country between people we know nothing about".

But his remark continues to be a challenge for all policymakers thinking about whether to get diplomatically - or even militarily - involved in a potential conflict between two foreign countries. The consequences could be far-reaching.

That is why Britain is concerned about the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.

Proximity

Ukraine is not too far from Britain. After all, it is part of the European continent.

Yes, it is not a member of the European Union or NATO, but it is an ally of European states and has a pro-Western government.

Like most other European countries, it is democratic and the majority of its population does not want the country to become part of Russia.

In addition, Ukraine has close ties with the UK. After 2,000 anti-tank weapons were shipped to Ukraine last week and 30 British soldiers arrived to train Ukrainian troops on how to use them, the phrase "God Save the Queen" trended on Ukrainian Twitter.

Some bars and restaurants in Kyiv offered free drinks to anyone with a British passport.

Legal obligations

The UK has a legal obligation to defend the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

In 1994, the United Kingdom and the United States signed a memorandum at an international conference in Budapest pledging to "respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine". They also promised to provide assistance to Ukraine if it "becomes a victim of an act of aggression".

This was in exchange for Ukraine giving up its huge arsenal of nuclear weapons, a legacy of its membership in the Soviet Union.

Security of Europe

The UK opposes the redrawing of European borders by force.

A core principle of European security since the Second World War has been that sovereign nations have the right to make their own choices.

This is called self-determination, and perhaps the most important aspect of this principle is that borders cannot be changed by invading armies.

Russia did this in 2014 by annexing the Crimean peninsula. Many Western politicians regret that they were unable to stop it and want to make sure that such an invasion does not happen again.

In a speech last week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said: "Allowing Russia to violate these principles with impunity will drag us all back to much more dangerous and unstable times."

It is worth noting that the other signatory to the Budapest Memorandum was Russia.

The memorandum is not a treaty, and lawyers argue whether it has legal force. But it is an official, public and written commitment of Britain to support Ukraine. 

Opposition to Russia's demands

Russia's broader demands are unacceptable to Britain.

Russia wants NATO to make a legally binding promise that Ukraine will never become a member of the alliance. It also wants NATO to withdraw its forces from most Eastern European countries.

But both of these demands would violate key NATO principles, namely that the alliance should be open to any European country that wants to join and that all NATO members should be sovereign states.

In other words, it is not in Britain's or NATO's interests for Eastern European allies to fall under the shadow of Russian influence.

As British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told MPs: "We cannot abandon the vision of a Europe whole and free that emerged in those extraordinary years from 1989 to 1991."

"We will not reopen that gap and undo the European security order because Russia has put a gun to Ukraine's head," he added.

Avoiding a large-scale war

Many analysts fear that the war in Ukraine could potentially spill over to other European countries.

Russia could use the crisis to launch cyber and other hybrid attacks on NATO countries. It may even send troops to the three Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The fighting could spread to Belarus, where Russian troops are already stationed. NATO countries are already promising to build up their own forces on the eastern flank of the alliance.

As a NATO member, Britain would in principle be obliged to defend another NATO ally. In December, Chief of the Defence Staff Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said: "The worst case scenarios in terms of a full-scale invasion would be on a scale not seen in Europe since the Second World War."

...and a potential migration crisis

If war breaks out in Ukraine and Russian troops occupy large parts of the country, many civilians could flee.

Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told BBC Hard Talk that as many as a million people could leave: "It will be a disaster not only for Ukraine, it will be a disaster for Europe."

Some migrants may stay in neighboring Poland and Eastern European countries, but some may move further west and end up in Britain.

Send a message

Western powers are clearly aware that the rest of the world is watching this crisis closely.

Some autocratic leaders are eager to see how resolutely the West will resist attempts to undermine the territorial integrity of a sovereign nation.

Many analysts say the conflict is being closely watched in particular by Beijing, which has plans to reunify Taiwan with mainland China.

The fear is that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine without resistance, it could signal to other leaders that the days of Western powers intervening in other conflicts are over.

otential energy crisis

The UK gets almost no gas from Russia and instead most of the blue fuel comes from the North Sea and Norway.

But any conflict with Ukraine could disrupt gas supplies to Europe.

Pipelines that bring Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine could be damaged. Russia could also refuse to supply to punish the West.

Europe itself could limit future gas supplies by abandoning the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. This pipeline is ready but awaits regulatory approval.

All these obstacles can significantly increase the price of gas in Europe and, consequently, in the UK.